Heat olive oil in a large heavy-bottomed pot or Dutch oven over medium-high heat. Add the ground beef and spread into an even layer. Let it cook undisturbed for 2–3 minutes until a deep brown crust forms on the bottom, then break it up and continue cooking until no pink remains, about 5 minutes total. Drain excess fat if desired, leaving about 1 tablespoon in the pot.

Add the diced onion and bell pepper to the pot and cook, stirring occasionally, until softened, about 4 minutes. Add the minced garlic and cook for 1 minute more until fragrant.

Add the chili powder, cumin, smoked paprika, cayenne, salt, and black pepper directly to the meat mixture. Stir well and cook for 60 seconds, letting the spices toast in the fat — you will notice the aroma intensify immediately.

Pour in the fire-roasted diced tomatoes (with juices), tomato sauce, and drained kidney beans. Stir everything together to combine, scraping up any browned bits from the bottom of the pot.

Pour in the beef broth and bring the mixture to a boil over high heat. Once boiling, add the dry elbow macaroni and stir well to submerge it in the liquid.

Reduce heat to medium, cover the pot with a lid, and cook for 8–10 minutes, stirring every 2–3 minutes to prevent sticking, until the macaroni is just al dente and has absorbed most of the liquid. The sauce should be thick and glossy — if it looks too dry, add a splash more broth.

Remove the pot from the heat. Stir in 1.5 cups of the shredded cheddar until fully melted and incorporated into the sauce. Taste and adjust seasoning with salt, pepper, or hot sauce as needed.

Sprinkle the remaining 1/2 cup of cheddar over the top of the pot (or individual bowls). Serve immediately with your favorite toppings such as sour cream, jalapeños, and sliced scallions.